{"id":6693,"date":"2015-11-08T09:40:43","date_gmt":"2015-11-08T04:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/?p=6693"},"modified":"2016-09-14T11:03:09","modified_gmt":"2016-09-14T05:33:09","slug":"data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/","title":{"rendered":"Data Analytics Challenge 1 (Clue # 3) : Does Bayes’ Theorem have a Better Answer?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Does<\/a>

Does Bayes’ Theorem Have a Better Answer? – by Roopam<\/p><\/div>\n

Data Analytics Challenge 1 \u2013 The Shady Gambler<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"SherlockThis is the final part of the first\u00a0data analytics challenge on YOU CANalytics. You could find the previous parts at these links:\u00a0Part-1<\/a>\u00a0&\u00a0Part-2<\/a>. <\/strong>As mentioned earlier, these challenges require your participation for the investigation to\u00a0move ahead. You had\u00a0some really good discussions in the previous parts: Discussion Part 1<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0& Discussion Part 2<\/a><\/strong>. Now, let me move the story further based on your investigation. Again, this post will require your participation for closing the case.<\/p>\n

In the previous parts, you were approached by Scotland Yard to investigate charges against a gambler with dubious character<\/span>. You are investigating the possibility of the gambler being a cheat or his die being biased. You analysed his past 1000 throws of a die and found the probability of \u00a0throws being random (non-biased)\u00a0= 0.164 or 16.4% (Credit : Rishabh)<\/span>.\u00a0As many of you pointed out, this doesn’t conclusively make the gambler into a cheat.<\/p>\n

Does Bayes’ Theorem have a Better Answer?<\/span><\/h2>\n

However, there is key information that has been available to you throughout the case: the gambler has a dubious character. This means he has been investigated before for the charges of being a cheat. You asked Scotland Yard about the chances of the gambler being a cheat from their\u00a0previous investigations. They gave you the prior probability of 0.9 or 90%. This 90% is a mix of their investigation, and professional judgement. Interesting, professional judgement and feelings are converted into a probability figure here. You used this information and scribbled down a few calculations in your detective notebook. This is the same page from your notebook. Please click on the image to enlarge it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bayes'<\/a>

Bayes’ Theorem Calculation<\/p><\/div>\n

You have used Bayes’ Theorem in this calculation. \u00a0Read the previous articles to get an intuitive understanding of Bayes’ Theorem and Bayesian Inference<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Let us see what you scribbled in your notebook. Towards the extreme left you wrote the prior probability i.e.<\/p>\n

P(Gambler is a cheat) = P(Cheat) = 90% or 0.9<\/pre>\n
This made\u00a0chances of him not being a cheat equal to<\/p>\n
P(Gambler is not a cheat) = 1 - P(Cheat) = P(~Cheat) = 10% or 0.1<\/pre>\n
Then you wrote down the probability of the event (the gambler’s 1000 throws) if he is not a cheat P(~Cheat). This probability is 0.164 or 16.4 %. I hope you noticed this is the probability calculated through Chi-square test\u00a0by you in the previous part.<\/p>\n
P(Observed Throws|~Cheat) = 16.4% or 0.164<\/pre>\n
Similarly, you found the probability of the event (Observed Throws) if the gambler is a cheat P(Cheat)<\/p>\n
P(Observed Throws|Cheat) = 1-0.164 = 83.6% or 0.836<\/pre>\n
Now, came the crucial part of the calculation of posterior probability using Bayes’ Theorem (extreme right calculation in your scribbling). This is the probability of the gambler being a cheat in the light of the new evidence \/ event (Observed Throws).<\/p>\n
\u00a0\"P(Cheat|Observed\<\/pre>\n
This made\u00a0the gambler ~97% likely of being a cheat. You shared your results with Scotland Yard and they immediately started working on the paperwork for the warrant against the gambler. You came back home after that. You knew Dr. Watson who was silently watching you all this while with a look of complete amusement is struggling to keep his curiosity and questions to himself. You requested\u00a0him to wait for a\u00a0few more\u00a0minutes and\u00a0prepare some tea for both of you. Now, you have both settled into comfortable seats in your drawing room with your cups of tea. Dr. Watson is almost turning red with excitement to learn answers to his questions. You are equally excited to settle\u00a0his curiosity,\u00a0and hear his praises for you.\u00a0He has immediately overloaded you with these questions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
1<\/strong><\/td>\nWhat was the relevance of earlier evidence (prior probabilities) against the gambler to solve this case?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/strong><\/td>\nWhat if there were no prior probabilities, would you start with 50-50 chances of the gambler being a cheat? How will this change the calculation?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/strong><\/td>\nWhat is your opinion about converting experts judgement into prior probabilities?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/strong><\/td>\nWhy do you think Bayes’ Theorem has a better solution to this investigation than simple Chi-Square Test?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/strong><\/td>\nNow that you are more relaxed, do you still think your calculation for Bayes’ Theorem was correct?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/strong><\/td>\nDoes Bayes’ Theorem offer a better mechanism of building a case\u00a0with incremental clues? Is this similar to detective or scientific investigation?<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
Again, you don’t need to answer all these questions just take your pick and start a discussion in the “leave a comment” section at the bottom. Please mention the question number(s) at the beginning of your discussion for other readers to follow your train of thought. I look forward to your answers with the same eagerness as Dr. Watson!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Data Analytics Challenge 1 \u2013 The Shady Gambler This is the final part of the first\u00a0data analytics challenge on YOU CANalytics. You could find the previous parts at these links:\u00a0Part-1\u00a0&\u00a0Part-2. As mentioned earlier, these challenges require your participation for the investigation to\u00a0move ahead. You had\u00a0some really good discussions in the previous parts: Discussion Part 1\u00a0&<\/p>\n
Read More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[75,65],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\nData Analytics Challenge : Bayes' Theorem - YOU CANalytics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In this data analytics challenge we will explore the solution through Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem will provide an interesting perspective to our problem.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Data Analytics Challenge : Bayes' Theorem - YOU CANalytics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this data analytics challenge we will explore the solution through Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem will provide an interesting perspective to our problem.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"YOU CANalytics |\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"roopam\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-11-08T04:10:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-09-14T05:33:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"486\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Roopam Upadhyay\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#organization\",\"name\":\"YOU CANalytics\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/\",\"sameAs\":[],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/YOU-CANalytics-Logo.jpg?fit=607%2C120\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/YOU-CANalytics-Logo.jpg?fit=607%2C120\",\"width\":607,\"height\":120,\"caption\":\"YOU CANalytics\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/\",\"name\":\"YOU CANalytics |\",\"description\":\"Explore the Power of Data Science\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1\",\"width\":800,\"height\":486,\"caption\":\"Does Bayes' Theorem Have a Better Answer? - by Roopam\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/\",\"name\":\"Data Analytics Challenge : Bayes' Theorem - YOU CANalytics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-11-08T04:10:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-09-14T05:33:09+00:00\",\"description\":\"In this data analytics challenge we will explore the solution through Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem will provide an interesting perspective to our problem.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Data Analytics Challenge 1 (Clue # 3) : Does Bayes’ Theorem have a Better Answer?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#webpage\"},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#\/schema\/person\/55961a1cea272ecdf290cb387be069b6\"},\"headline\":\"Data Analytics Challenge 1 (Clue # 3) : Does Bayes’ Theorem have a Better Answer?\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-11-08T04:10:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-09-14T05:33:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#webpage\"},\"wordCount\":766,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"Analytics Challenge\",\"Bayesian Inference and Statistics\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#\/schema\/person\/55961a1cea272ecdf290cb387be069b6\",\"name\":\"Roopam Upadhyay\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dd1aa0b0e813f7639800bcfad6a554f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dd1aa0b0e813f7639800bcfad6a554f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Roopam Upadhyay\"},\"description\":\"This blog contains my personal views and thoughts on predictive Analytics and big data. - Roopam Upadhyay\",\"sameAs\":[\"roopam\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/author\/roopam\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Data Analytics Challenge : Bayes' Theorem - YOU CANalytics","description":"In this data analytics challenge we will explore the solution through Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem will provide an interesting perspective to our problem.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Data Analytics Challenge : Bayes' Theorem - YOU CANalytics","og_description":"In this data analytics challenge we will explore the solution through Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem will provide an interesting perspective to our problem.","og_url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/","og_site_name":"YOU CANalytics |","article_author":"roopam","article_published_time":"2015-11-08T04:10:43+00:00","article_modified_time":"2016-09-14T05:33:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":486,"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Roopam Upadhyay","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#organization","name":"YOU CANalytics","url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/","sameAs":[],"logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#logo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/YOU-CANalytics-Logo.jpg?fit=607%2C120","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/YOU-CANalytics-Logo.jpg?fit=607%2C120","width":607,"height":120,"caption":"YOU CANalytics"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#logo"}},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/","name":"YOU CANalytics |","description":"Explore the Power of Data Science","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#primaryimage","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1","width":800,"height":486,"caption":"Does Bayes' Theorem Have a Better Answer? - by Roopam"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/","name":"Data Analytics Challenge : Bayes' Theorem - YOU CANalytics","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2015-11-08T04:10:43+00:00","dateModified":"2016-09-14T05:33:09+00:00","description":"In this data analytics challenge we will explore the solution through Bayes' Theorem. Bayes' Theorem will provide an interesting perspective to our problem.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Data Analytics Challenge 1 (Clue # 3) : Does Bayes’ Theorem have a Better Answer?"}]},{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#webpage"},"author":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#\/schema\/person\/55961a1cea272ecdf290cb387be069b6"},"headline":"Data Analytics Challenge 1 (Clue # 3) : Does Bayes’ Theorem have a Better Answer?","datePublished":"2015-11-08T04:10:43+00:00","dateModified":"2016-09-14T05:33:09+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#webpage"},"wordCount":766,"commentCount":3,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1","articleSection":["Analytics Challenge","Bayesian Inference and Statistics"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-clue-3-does-bayes-theorem-have-a-better-answer\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#\/schema\/person\/55961a1cea272ecdf290cb387be069b6","name":"Roopam Upadhyay","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/#personlogo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dd1aa0b0e813f7639800bcfad6a554f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/dd1aa0b0e813f7639800bcfad6a554f1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Roopam Upadhyay"},"description":"This blog contains my personal views and thoughts on predictive Analytics and big data. - Roopam Upadhyay","sameAs":["roopam"],"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/author\/roopam\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Bayes-Theorem-Shady-Gambler-2.jpg?fit=800%2C486&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3L0jT-1JX","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1833,"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/bayes-theorem-monty-hall-problem\/","url_meta":{"origin":6693,"position":0},"title":"Bayes’ Theorem – Monty Hall Problem","author":"Roopam Upadhyay","date":false,"format":false,"excerpt":"Monty Hall Problem Monty Hall is back, for one last time, to host the famous show from the 1960s \u2018Let's Make a Deal\u2019. You are his final guest and the prize is really desirable \u2013 a red Ferrari 458 Italia. Monty is no generous host; he could be over 90\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Analytics Graffiti"","block_context":{"text":"Analytics Graffiti","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/category\/analytics-graffiti\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Monty Hall & Bayes Theorem - by Roopam","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo21.jpg?fit=983%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo21.jpg?fit=983%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo21.jpg?fit=983%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo21.jpg?fit=983%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1984,"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/probability-bayesian-statistics-books-self-taught\/","url_meta":{"origin":6693,"position":1},"title":"Books to Teach Yourself Probability and Bayesian Statistics (Part 1)","author":"Roopam Upadhyay","date":false,"format":false,"excerpt":"Self Study: Probability and Bayesian Statistics An average 21-year-old with a college degree spends a little over 15000 hours in classroom lectures. This accounts for a roughly 8th portion of his \/ her active life on this planet. To me, this alone is a good enough reason to bring constant\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Analytics Book Club"","block_context":{"text":"Analytics Book Club","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/category\/analytics-book-club\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Self Learning Bayesian Statistics","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/photo.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6013,"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-solve-the-case-of-shady-gambler\/","url_meta":{"origin":6693,"position":2},"title":"Data Analytics Challenge 1(Clue # 1) : Solve the Case of a Shady Gambler","author":"Roopam Upadhyay","date":false,"format":false,"excerpt":"Data! data! data!\" he cried impatiently. \"I can't make bricks without clay. - Sherlock Holmes In this article, we are starting a new series on YOU CANalytics that can't proceed without your\u00a0participation to solve the data analytics mysteries. In the beginning of each article of this series, you will get\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Analytics Challenge"","block_context":{"text":"Analytics Challenge","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/category\/analytics-challenge\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Mystery Challenge plot","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1017,"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/12-popular-mathematics-books-analytics-warm-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":6693,"position":3},"title":"12 Must Read Popular Maths & Logic Books from My Bookshelf (Part 1)","author":"Roopam Upadhyay","date":false,"format":false,"excerpt":"The Analytics Book Club I cannot remember when I became a compulsive book reader. As a kid, I used to read mostly comic books. Then I missed the whole phase of teenage fiction books like The Hardy Boys, etc. I did read a few Agatha Christie novels in school and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Analytics Book Club"","block_context":{"text":"Analytics Book Club","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/category\/analytics-book-club\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"The Analytics Book Club - by Roopam","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Book-Club-Compressed.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Book-Club-Compressed.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Book-Club-Compressed.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/Book-Club-Compressed.jpg?fit=768%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6112,"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/data-analytics-challenge-1-solve-the-case-of-a-shady-gambler-clue-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":6693,"position":4},"title":"Data Analytics Challenge 1(Clue # 2) : Solve the Case of a Shady Gambler","author":"Roopam Upadhyay","date":false,"format":false,"excerpt":"Sometimes answers lead to more questions. In data science this sometime is true almost everytime. Analytics Challenge - The Shady Gamble In the previous article, you were approached by Scotland Yard to investigate charges against a gambler with dubious character. The allegation against him was that he had loaded his\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Analytics Challenge"","block_context":{"text":"Analytics Challenge","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/category\/analytics-challenge\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Mystery Challenge plot","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Mystery-Challenge-plot.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3973,"url":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/model-selection-retail-case-study-example-part-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":6693,"position":5},"title":"Model Selection – Retail Case Study Example (Part 7)","author":"Roopam Upadhyay","date":false,"format":false,"excerpt":"Model Selection This is a continuation of our retail case study example for campaign and marketing analytics. In the previous two parts, we discussed a couple of decision tree algorithms (CART and C4.5)\u00a0for classification. Recall a previous case study example on\u00a0banking and risk management where we discussed logistic regression\u00a0which is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Marketing Analytics"","block_context":{"text":"Marketing Analytics","link":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/category\/marketing-analytics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/photo.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/photo.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/photo.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/photo.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/photo.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6693"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ucanalytics.com\/blogs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}